El Niño Could Become Strongest Ever Recorded as WMO Gives Near-100% Forecast Through February 2027
By Shahnoor Saqib I SCN NEWS
GENEVA — A rapidly strengthening El Niño could become the strongest ever recorded and drive heightened risks of extreme heat, drought and flooding well into 2027, the United Nations weather agency warned on Thursday, as governments and humanitarian agencies were urged to accelerate preparations for potentially disruptive shifts in global weather patterns. The World Meteorological Organization said El Niño is now firmly established across the tropical Pacific and is expected to intensify to very strong levels during the coming months before peaking toward the end of 2026, with its climatic effects continuing well into next year.
The latest assessment marks a significant escalation in international concern over the phenomenon. Forecasts from WMO's Global Producing Centres show an “exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100%” that El Niño will persist through February 2027, reflecting unusually strong agreement among forecasting systems. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said it was the first time the organization had expressed such a degree of certainty in an El Niño/La Niña Update, underscoring how clearly the Pacific Ocean and atmospheric indicators are pointing toward continued strengthening rather than an early return to neutral or La Niña conditions.
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said El Niño was being “supersized before our eyes,” warning that the world was moving deeper into what he described as a danger zone of extreme weather. Exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific are providing the energy for further intensification, while the event is developing against a broader background of elevated global temperatures and unusually warm oceans. WMO stressed that El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon, but its warming influence is now interacting with a climate system already made hotter by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.
The latest WMO seasonal assessment provides a clearer indication of just how unusual Pacific conditions could become. Multi-model forecasts for September-November 2026 project the Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly at approximately 3.6 degrees Celsius, with the intensification trajectory expected to peak around November and December. The relatively narrow spread among the individual forecasting systems indicates high confidence in that projection. WMO nevertheless cautioned that the strength of an El Niño event does not translate automatically into the severity of weather impacts in individual countries, making regional and national forecasts essential for determining local risks.
El Niño forms when surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become unusually warm and interact with changes in atmospheric circulation. It typically occurs every two to seven years and usually lasts around nine to 12 months, but its consequences can extend thousands of kilometres beyond the Pacific. Depending on the region and season, the phenomenon can alter rainfall, intensify drought conditions, contribute to flooding and extreme heat, influence tropical cyclone activity and place pressure on agriculture, water supplies, public health and energy systems.
The development has been building for months. In April, WMO said climate models were increasingly aligned behind the emergence of El Niño during 2026. By late July, the organization reported that a strong event was developing and expected to intensify through August-October, with seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies forecast to exceed 2.9°C in key monitoring regions. Thursday's assessment goes considerably further, describing El Niño as firmly established and forecasting very strong intensity as the Pacific continues to accumulate exceptional warmth.
Another important factor is developing outside the Pacific. WMO's September-November seasonal forecast expects a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, with a seasonal mean value of about 0.9°C. This pattern involves relatively warmer waters in the western Indian Ocean and cooler conditions farther east and can interact with El Niño to reshape rainfall around the Indian Ocean basin. WMO had already warned in July that the combination of strengthening El Niño, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and exceptionally warm oceans could amplify regional risks of drought, floods and wildfires, although the precise effects vary substantially between countries and seasons.
The implications extend beyond rainfall. El Niño typically exerts a warming influence on global average temperatures because heat stored in the tropical Pacific is released into the atmosphere. The powerful 2023-2024 El Niño combined with human-caused climate change to help push 2024 to record global temperatures, according to WMO. Scientists will therefore closely watch the current event not only for immediate drought and flood risks but also for its potential influence on global temperatures after it reaches its expected peak late this year.
WMO has been careful, however, not to present El Niño as a uniform global disaster forecast. Rainfall effects differ considerably by geography: historically, El Niño has been associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia, while drought risk can rise in Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia. Tropical cyclone patterns can also shift, with warmer El Niño waters tending to favour hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific while suppressing Atlantic hurricane formation. Each El Niño develops differently, meaning historical patterns provide guidance but cannot by themselves predict what will happen in a particular location in 2026 or 2027.
The potential humanitarian and economic consequences are why the WMO and national meteorological and hydrological services are stepping up preparedness and early-warning efforts. Agriculture is particularly exposed because altered rainfall and prolonged heat can affect planting schedules, crop yields, livestock and irrigation demand. Water managers may face either shortages or excessive rainfall, while health authorities must prepare for heat stress and weather-related disease risks and disaster agencies need to anticipate floods, drought and wildfire conditions before they reach crisis levels.
For governments, the unusually strong forecast therefore provides something valuable despite the heightened threat: time to prepare. Seasonal forecasting can allow authorities to adjust reservoir management, agricultural planning, emergency stocks, public-health measures and disaster-response systems before the most disruptive conditions emerge. WMO has emphasized that forecasts themselves cannot prevent disasters; their value depends on whether governments, humanitarian organizations and communities convert the warning into early action.
The central message from Thursday's announcement is consequently broader than whether the developing phenomenon ultimately earns the label of the strongest El Niño in modern records. WMO's models are showing extraordinary confidence that it will remain active into early 2027, Pacific temperatures are expected to rise further, another influential climate pattern is developing in the Indian Ocean, and the event is unfolding in an already exceptionally warm global climate. The months before the expected late-2026 peak will now become a critical preparation period for countries attempting to reduce the human and economic costs of whatever regional extremes follow.