Moscow rejects Zelenskyy’s civil aviation warning as Ukraine seeks to turn drone campaign into pressure on Russian airspace
MOSCOW/KYIV — Russia vowed Wednesday to prevent Ukraine from seriously disrupting civilian aviation after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned international airlines and insurers that the growing presence of Ukrainian drones was making Russian airspace increasingly dangerous. The confrontation moved beyond wartime rhetoric when Kyiv formally notified the International Civil Aviation Organization, or ICAO, about what it considers mounting risks to commercial aircraft, effectively opening a new front in Ukraine's effort to impose economic and operational costs on Russia far beyond the physical damage caused by individual drone strikes.
Russian Transport Minister Andrei Nikitin said Moscow was preparing for the threat and would not allow “significant disruptions” to civilian aviation. He said transport authorities were continuously strengthening airport and flight-safety requirements while coordinating closely with Russia's Defence Ministry and National Guard. Nikitin acknowledged that temporary “Carpet” restrictions — emergency closures imposed when drones or other threats approach airports — would continue because passenger safety takes priority, but insisted Russia could keep its aviation system functioning despite Ukraine's expanding long-range strike capability.
Zelenskyy's message a day earlier was directed unusually specifically at airlines, insurers and operators using Russia's major airports. He said Ukraine was not threatening civilian aircraft and would not deliberately target them, but argued that the number of Ukrainian drones operating over Russia meant airlines could no longer assume the airspace was safe. “The war started by Russia is closing its own skies,” Zelenskyy said, adding that drone-filled airspace was incompatible with normal civilian aviation.
President Vladimir Putin responded far more sharply, describing Zelenskyy's warning as a “declaration of state terrorism” and saying Moscow would find a way to respond. Putin also said Russian forces had been instructed to prepare large-scale strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, presenting those attacks as retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on Russian facilities. Moscow has repeatedly accused Kyiv of terrorism over attacks inside Russia; Ukraine says its long-range operations are legitimate acts of self-defence against the country that invaded it in February 2022.
Kyiv then internationalised the dispute. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Ukraine had officially informed ICAO that Russian airspace was unsafe for civilian aviation because of increased military activity and urged airlines and governments to exercise caution. Ukraine's government is seeking broader international action over flights using Russian airspace, while arguing that it is providing advance warning precisely to prevent an unintended civilian aviation disaster. ICAO notification itself does not automatically close Russian airspace, however, and Russia retains authority over its sovereign airspace.
The practical consequences were already visible Wednesday. Flightradar24 data cited by Reuters showed 21 cancellations and 235 delays at Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport, while Vnukovo recorded 22 cancellations and 94 delays. Turkish carrier Pegasus cancelled some Russia services for what it described as technical and operational reasons, while flydubai said it was monitoring developments and adjusting schedules and routes where necessary. Those disruptions cannot all automatically be attributed to Zelenskyy's statement, but they demonstrate the operational vulnerability his warning is attempting to exploit.
The international exposure is significant because Russian airspace is not commercially isolated. European and U.S. airlines largely stopped using it following Russia's full-scale invasion and subsequent sanctions, but carriers from China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf states continue operating flights to Russia or through Russian-controlled airspace. Emirates, Turkish Airlines, Air India, Etihad, Qatar Airways and Chinese carriers are among those whose networks can potentially be affected by changing risk assessments.
That makes the insurance industry almost as important as the military confrontation. Airlines do not need Ukraine physically to “close” Russian airspace for the strategy to create economic pressure. Persistent drone alerts can force temporary airport shutdowns, delays, diversions and additional fuel costs; if aviation-security assessments or war-risk insurers judge particular routes too dangerous, carriers can reduce or suspend services independently. Aviation risk consultancy Osprey Flight Solutions warned clients that Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia were likely to continue through 2026, including around Moscow and St Petersburg, with risks of miscalculation or misidentification in areas connected to the conflict.
The safety issue is particularly sensitive because civilian aircraft operating near active air-defence systems face dangers extending beyond a direct drone strike. Airports may close when drones approach, air-defence units may engage incoming targets and civilian aircraft can be diverted with little notice. Ukraine's own civilian airspace has remained closed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Russia, by contrast, has maintained extensive domestic and international civilian operations despite increasingly frequent temporary airport restrictions caused by Ukrainian drone attacks.
Zelenskyy's warning therefore represents something broader than another escalation in drone warfare. Ukraine is attempting to transform its rapidly expanding long-range drone capability into economic and aviation pressure: not necessarily by destroying airports or targeting airliners, but by making routine commercial operations more difficult, expensive and potentially less attractive to airlines and insurers. Russia's response — closer coordination between civilian aviation authorities, the military and National Guard — shows Moscow recognizes that keeping airports functioning has itself become part of the war effort.
The limits of that strategy remain important. Russian airspace has not been legally or completely closed, there is no evidence that Ukraine has announced an intention to attack civilian aircraft, and many foreign airlines continue operating. Zelenskyy's statement should therefore be understood as a warning about growing risk rather than a declaration that commercial aviation has already become impossible across the world's largest country.
But the immediate numbers illustrate why Moscow is responding. Dozens of cancellations and hundreds of delays can impose economic costs without a single civilian aircraft being hit. If those disruptions become frequent enough to alter airline schedules and insurance decisions, Ukraine's drones could achieve something strategically significant: turning Russian airspace itself into an economic vulnerability.