Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian showing the memorandum of understanding he signed to end the war, June 18, 2026 [AFP]
The 14-Point Memorandum Ends the War — But Leaves Major Questions Unanswered
SCN
The United States and Iran have formally signed a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) designed to halt military operations, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, begin sanctions negotiations and launch talks on Iran's nuclear program. President Donald Trump has hailed the agreement as a historic breakthrough, while critics argue it postpones some of the hardest disputes rather than resolving them.
At the heart of the debate are three issues that could determine whether the agreement survives beyond its initial 60-day framework: Lebanon, the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran's uranium stockpile.
1. Lebanon: Ceasefire Language, But No Clear Solution
One of the most controversial sections of the agreement concerns Lebanon.
The MoU calls for an "immediate and permanent" end to military operations across all fronts, including Lebanon. It also emphasizes respect for Lebanon's territorial integrity and sovereignty.
However, the document does not explicitly require Israel to withdraw from occupied areas of southern Lebanon, a key Iranian demand during negotiations. Iran has repeatedly argued that Israeli forces must leave Lebanese territory, while Israel insists it will maintain a security buffer zone as long as Hezbollah remains a threat.
What Remains Unclear
- Will Israel eventually withdraw?
- How will Hezbollah be restrained?
- Who determines whether either side violates the agreement?
- Can Israel still strike Hezbollah targets?
Trump administration officials have suggested Israel retains the right to respond if Hezbollah attacks again, meaning the Lebanon front could remain a flashpoint even after the agreement takes effect.
Why It Matters
Lebanon could become the first major test of the deal. If fighting between Israel and Hezbollah resumes, the broader US-Iran framework could quickly come under pressure.
2. Strait of Hormuz: Reopened, But Not Necessarily Free Forever
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is one of the biggest achievements claimed by both sides.
The waterway carries roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments. Months of disruption sent shipping costs soaring and raised fears of an energy crisis. The agreement requires Iran to guarantee safe passage while the United States begins removing its naval blockade.
The Surprise Detail
Trump repeatedly promised Hormuz would reopen with "no tolls."
But the actual text appears more limited.
According to the released document, vessels will face no charges during the initial 60-day period, while future administration of the strait will be discussed between Iran, Oman and Gulf states.
That wording has triggered concerns that some form of transit fee or management mechanism could emerge later.
What Remains Unclear
- Will Iran eventually charge ships transit fees?
- How much authority will Gulf states have?
- Will the US permanently end its naval presence?
- Who enforces maritime security after the 60-day period?
Why It Matters
Global energy markets welcomed the reopening, but uncertainty over long-term management means oil traders and shipping companies remain cautious.
3. Uranium: The Biggest Unresolved Issue
Iran's nuclear program remains the most sensitive part of the agreement.
The MoU confirms Iran's commitment not to develop nuclear weapons and places future negotiations under international supervision. However, the document does not require Iran to immediately eliminate its uranium enrichment program.
Instead, both sides agreed to negotiate the fate of Iran's enriched uranium during the 60-day talks.
The New Detail
A newly released version of the agreement includes language requiring Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile to be "down-blended" under international monitoring.
Down-blending means diluting highly enriched uranium so it can no longer be used for weapons purposes.
However, the agreement does not currently require:
- Immediate export of enriched uranium.
- Permanent dismantling of nuclear facilities.
- A final enrichment ban.
- Specific verification mechanisms.
What Remains Unclear
- Will Iran continue civilian enrichment?
- Will uranium remain inside Iran?
- How intrusive will inspections be?
- What happens if Iran refuses future demands?
These questions are expected to dominate the upcoming negotiations.
The Other Major Questions
$300 Billion Reconstruction Fund
The agreement references a reconstruction package worth approximately $300 billion for Iran's economy. US officials insist this does not mean Washington itself will provide the money, but critics say funding sources remain vague.
Sanctions Relief
The MoU begins discussions on lifting sanctions but leaves the pace and scope of relief to future negotiations.
Frozen Iranian Assets
The agreement opens the door to releasing frozen Iranian funds, though precise amounts and conditions remain undefined.
Why Critics Are Concerned
Supporters see the agreement as a practical ceasefire framework that stopped a widening regional war and reopened one of the world's most important shipping lanes.
Critics argue the deal postpones difficult decisions and grants Iran significant economic benefits before final nuclear concessions have been secured. They also point to ambiguities surrounding Lebanon, uranium enrichment and future Hormuz management.
SCN Analysis: The Real Battle Starts Now
The 14-point agreement did not solve the biggest disputes between Washington and Tehran—it postponed them.
For the next 60 days, three questions will dominate:
- Can Lebanon remain quiet?
- Will Hormuz stay open without new restrictions?
- Can the US and Iran reach a final uranium deal?
If negotiators find answers, Trump could claim one of the most significant diplomatic achievements of his presidency. If they fail, the memorandum may be remembered only as a temporary pause in a much larger conflict