Six months into Iran war, Trump turns to global economic pressure as military campaign fails to force surrender
By SCN NEWS
WASHINGTON/TEHRAN — The U.S.-Israel war against Iran reached its six-month mark on Friday with Tehran battered but still refusing to surrender, the Strait of Hormuz severely disrupted and President Donald Trump increasingly shifting the American campaign from large-scale military strikes toward an attempt to economically isolate the Islamic Republic from the rest of the world. The milestone is far removed from Trump's early predictions of a short conflict lasting roughly four to five weeks. Reuters describes the war after six months as a costly stalemate: Iran's military infrastructure and economy have suffered enormous damage, but its government remains in power, shipping through one of the world's most important energy corridors has not returned to normal and there is still no clear route to a negotiated end.
The clearest evidence of Washington's strategic shift came this week with the launch of Operation Economic Outcast, which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described as an unprecedented campaign to sever Iran's financial connections around the world. The Treasury Department said U.S. officials are identifying Iranian oil, financial, technology and sanctions-evasion networks and giving governments defined periods to shut down targeted activity before Washington imposes consequences. The initiative also expands exposure to secondary sanctions for entities continuing to facilitate business with Tehran, effectively transforming Iran policy from sanctions directed primarily at Iranian institutions into a warning to banks, companies and governments in third countries that continued economic links could jeopardize their access to the U.S. financial system.
Washington demonstrated on Friday that the campaign is already moving beyond rhetoric. Treasury announced action targeting Iran's alleged access to banking channels in the United Arab Emirates, saying Banque Misr UAE processed suspected billions of dollars for the Iranian government over roughly two-and-a-half years. The move followed Monday's sanctions against nearly 60 Iran-linked entities and individuals and signals that the next phase of American pressure will increasingly focus on the international infrastructure that allows Tehran to trade, move money and evade existing restrictions. Treasury's message is deliberately global: countries will be given time to sever identified Iranian connections, but institutions that continue facilitating sanctions evasion risk being cut off from the American financial system.
The turn toward economic warfare also comes as Washington weighs the military cost of a campaign that has lasted far longer than initially expected. AP reported that U.S. officials are confronting concerns over depleted munitions stockpiles and the effect a prolonged Middle Eastern conflict could have on American military readiness elsewhere. Reuters reported that Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told allies additional U.S. strikes are unlikely “for the time being,” suggesting Washington currently sees economic pressure as a more sustainable means of extracting concessions from Tehran. The shift does not mean the military campaign has formally ended, and Trump retains the option of renewed strikes, but it marks a significant change from the intensive combat operations that dominated earlier phases of the war.
Trump himself is no longer attaching a deadline to the conflict. Asked this week when Iran must return to negotiations, he told Al Jazeera he had “no time schedule” and was “not in a hurry,” arguing that the United States was “winning very big.” He pointed to Iran's inflation, weakening economy and domestic pressure as evidence that the combined military and economic campaign was working. That position contrasts sharply with the expectations Trump set near the beginning of hostilities, when he repeatedly portrayed the intervention as a limited operation that could be completed within weeks.
Iran has unquestionably absorbed severe economic damage. Its currency has fallen to record lows, prices for food and other essentials have risen sharply and restrictions on oil exports have placed additional pressure on government revenue. But six months of warfare have not produced the decisive political outcome Washington initially sought. Reuters reported that Iran's government remains intact and believes it can withstand continued pressure, while Tehran retains military capabilities and one particularly powerful source of leverage: disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Hormuz remains perhaps the clearest demonstration of why neither side can easily declare victory. Before the war, roughly one-fifth of global energy supplies moved through the waterway. Traffic has remained dramatically below normal for much of the conflict, yet the global market has proved more resilient than many analysts expected. Reuters reported Friday that Brent crude remained below $90 a barrel despite months of disruption, although refined-product markets remain tight and actual Gulf export volumes are disputed. The International Maritime Organization said 19 seafarers have been killed in attacks on international shipping since the conflict began and at least 6,000 remain stranded aboard hundreds of vessels, underscoring the continuing human as well as economic consequences of the maritime confrontation.
At the same time, diplomatic efforts have not disappeared. Pakistan and Qatar are trying to revive direct dialogue, while Iran and Oman have discussed a temporary mechanism for reopening commercial navigation through Hormuz. Qatar's foreign minister travelled to Tehran on Thursday for talks aimed at creating conditions for dialogue, and Iranian media reported progress on a temporary shipping route. But Tehran has tied implementation to wider conditions involving the U.S. blockade and the previous truce framework, meaning a technical maritime arrangement remains entangled with the broader political confrontation.
The conflict has also produced a profound change inside Iran. The February 28 opening attacks killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and propelled his badly wounded son Mojtaba Khamenei into the country's highest office. Six months later, Reuters reported Friday that the new supreme leader has still made no public appearance and released no photograph, video or audio message since taking the position. Iranian officials insist he remains in control while recovering from his injuries and operating under tight security, but his prolonged absence has generated growing uncertainty over how authority is being exercised at a moment when Tehran faces decisions over war, sanctions, Hormuz and possible negotiations.
The six-month milestone therefore reveals a conflict that has changed both sides without delivering the decisive result either expected. The United States and Israel inflicted enormous damage on Iran's military and political leadership, but Tehran did not collapse. Iran demonstrated that it could impose substantial costs through missiles and maritime disruption, but its economy is under intense strain and its population is paying a growing price. Washington retains overwhelming military and financial power, yet months of fighting have consumed resources and failed to produce surrender or a durable political settlement.
That helps explain why the battlefield is now moving into banks, shipping companies, oil networks and the financial systems of countries far beyond Iran. Operation Economic Outcast is effectively an attempt to use America's dominance of global finance to accomplish what six months of military pressure has not: force Tehran to decide that continued resistance costs more than negotiation. But the strategy carries its own limits. China remains the principal destination for Iranian crude, and Bessent acknowledged this week that Washington was not immediately targeting every major Chinese institution involved, warning against actions that could destabilize the wider global financial system.
Six months after Trump expected a short war, the question is therefore no longer simply whether the United States can inflict greater damage on Iran. It demonstrably can. The harder question is whether additional economic pain can produce a political concession that months of military pressure failed to secure. Trump says he is no longer in a hurry. Operation Economic Outcast suggests Washington is preparing for a confrontation that could last considerably longer — with the next phase fought increasingly through the global financial system rather than exclusively over Iranian skies.