From Cuba to Iran: Why Trump’s Foreign Policy Is Facing New Global Resistance
By Shahnoor Saqib
WASHINGTON/HAVANA: Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel has delivered a defiant message to President Donald Trump, saying Cuba is “not afraid of war” and will not surrender its sovereignty. His comments come as U.S.-Cuba relations deteriorate under a renewed Trump pressure campaign involving sanctions, oil restrictions and accusations that Havana poses a national security threat.
Cuba insists it is “not a threat to anybody,” while Washington argues that Havana’s ties with Russia and China have become a security concern. U.S. officials and analysts have warned that Russian and Chinese intelligence activity in Cuba has expanded, with facilities close enough to monitor sensitive U.S. military operations in Florida and beyond.
The timing is critical. The United States is still managing the economic and diplomatic fallout from its confrontation with Iran. Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz — a route central to global oil and gas flows — helped push up fuel, shipping and food costs, with UNCTAD warning that vulnerable economies could feel long-term damage even after shipping routes reopened.
Why Cuba Matters More Than Its Size
Cuba is not a global military superpower. But its location gives it strategic importance. It sits near the U.S. mainland, close to Florida, Caribbean shipping routes and U.S. military infrastructure. That is why Washington views Russian and Chinese presence on the island as more than symbolic.
Historically, Cuba has been one of the most sensitive pressure points in U.S. foreign policy. The U.S.-Cuba relationship has been marked by distrust since the 1959 revolution, and Washington has sanctioned Cuba longer than any other country.
Today, the Trump administration has expanded sanctions again, targeting Cuban officials, military-linked entities and sectors of the economy. Cuba says those measures worsen shortages of food, fuel, medicine and electricity, while the U.S. says the sanctions are meant to pressure Havana over repression and national security concerns.
Iran War Version: The Lesson for Cuba
The Iran conflict showed how quickly a regional confrontation can become a global economic crisis. When tensions disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices, insurance costs, shipping routes and inflation expectations were affected worldwide. Reuters reported that oil later fell as U.S.-Iran talks made progress, showing how sensitive markets are to war-and-peace signals.
For Cuba, the military geography is different. Cuba does not control a chokepoint like Hormuz. But a U.S.-Cuba confrontation could still create major consequences:
1. Caribbean militarization: More U.S. naval and air deployments around Cuba.
2. Russia-China response: Moscow and Beijing could increase intelligence, cyber or diplomatic support for Havana.
3. Migration pressure: Any conflict or blockade could trigger a new Cuban migration crisis toward Florida.
4. Oil and shipping shock: Not as severe as Hormuz, but Caribbean trade, insurance and tourism could be hit.
5. Domestic U.S. politics: Florida, Latino voters, national security hawks and anti-war voices would all become central.
Is the World at War With the U.S.?
Not exactly. The world is not united in war against America. But several countries are resisting U.S. power in different ways.
Iran challenges U.S. influence in the Middle East. Cuba resists U.S. pressure in the Caribbean. Russia and China are expanding influence in areas Washington considers sensitive. Some U.S. allies still cooperate with Washington, but the Iran conflict showed that even partners can become uncomfortable when U.S. military action threatens oil, trade and regional stability.
The real trend is this: America is facing simultaneous resistance across multiple regions, while its economic and military tools are being tested at the same time.
What Happens If War Starts With Cuba?
A full U.S.-Cuba war remains a high-risk, low-benefit scenario. The most likely path is continued sanctions, diplomatic pressure, intelligence confrontation and limited military posturing — not immediate invasion.
But if fighting did begin, the impact could be serious:
- Cuba’s economy could collapse further, worsening shortages and public suffering.
- The U.S. could face global criticism, especially at the United Nations.
- Russia and China could exploit the crisis, using Cuba as proof that Washington threatens smaller states.
- Oil and markets could react, especially if conflict overlaps with renewed Iran tensions.
- Latin America could split diplomatically, with some governments condemning U.S. action and others staying silent.
What Happens Next
The next 6–12 months will likely depend on three questions:
First, does Trump escalate beyond sanctions?
If Washington expands oil restrictions, maritime enforcement or military deployments, Havana may respond with stronger security cooperation with Russia and China.
Second, do U.S.-Iran talks hold?
If Iran tensions return, Washington may avoid opening another front with Cuba. But if Trump believes Iran has been contained, Cuba could face more pressure.
Third, does Cuba’s economy break or adapt?
Havana is trying major economic reforms, including expanded private-sector measures, but sanctions, fuel shortages and weak tourism make recovery difficult.
Most Likely Scenario
The most likely outcome is not immediate war, but a prolonged confrontation: tougher sanctions, louder rhetoric, intelligence warnings, UN battles, and military signaling in the Caribbean.
The danger is miscalculation. Iran showed that once missiles, drones, sanctions and naval pressure enter the same crisis, events can move faster than diplomacy.