Battleground Republicans wait for Trump to unleash massive campaign fund as election clock runs down
By Saqib S. Qureshi I SCN NEWS
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump is sitting on one of the largest political war chests in American politics with barely two months remaining before the November midterm elections, leaving increasingly anxious Republicans waiting to learn when — and where — his political operation will deploy hundreds of millions of dollars that could help determine control of Congress. Trump's principal super PAC, MAGA Inc., ended July with more than $403 million in cash, yet has so far spent relatively little on the competitive House and Senate contests Republicans are fighting to hold.
The first signs of a broader deployment appeared Monday when Vice President JD Vance traveled to Michigan for a campaign event financed by MAGA Inc., part of a planned series of battleground-state rallies. An operative familiar with the group's plans told the Associated Press that MAGA Inc. intends to spend in competitive races, potentially including advertising centered on Trump and his administration's record. But Republican candidates, donors and campaign professionals still have not been given a comprehensive public spending map showing how much of the fund will be committed, where it will go or how quickly it will arrive.
That uncertainty matters because the election calendar is beginning to impose costs that money alone cannot erase. Political television inventory becomes scarcer and considerably more expensive as Election Day approaches. Republican strategists told AP that in some important Texas media markets it may already be too late for outside organizations to secure the television inventory they might have obtained months earlier. Campaigns and party committees can also qualify for advertising rates unavailable to independent super PACs, making the timing and legal structure of spending increasingly consequential.
Texas has become the clearest test. Trump helped state Attorney General Ken Paxton defeat incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn, but the result transformed what Republicans once expected to be a reliably safe Senate seat into a potentially competitive general-election race against Democrat James Talarico. Talarico has raised more than $68.5 million compared with roughly $9 million for Paxton, according to AP, and ended June with more than $21.5 million available compared with Paxton's approximately $1.75 million. Louisiana Republican Sen. John Kennedy publicly urged Trump over the weekend to put as much as $100 million to $200 million into Texas.
MAGA Inc. has tested advertising attacking Talarico over rural hospital policy, but those advertisements had not yet aired as of the latest reporting. Trump's organization could instead emphasize digital advertising and a turnout operation aimed specifically at voters who strongly support Trump but are less likely to participate when he is not personally on the ballot. That strategy was tested during South Carolina's Republican Senate contest, where MAGA Inc. spent roughly $830,000, overwhelmingly on voter-contact telephone calls supplemented by text messages.
The unusual feature of the Republican position is that the party as a whole is not short of money. A Washington Post analysis of midyear campaign-finance reports found Republican party committees and major super PACs held a combined cash advantage of hundreds of millions of dollars over comparable Democratic organizations. The RNC alone ended June with approximately $128.5 million compared with $16.3 million for the Democratic National Committee, while major Republican congressional super PACs were also heavily funded. But Democrats held an aggregate fundraising advantage among individual candidates in many of the races being targeted nationally.
That creates a potentially important distinction between possessing money and being able to use it efficiently. Candidate campaigns can often purchase television advertising at significantly lower rates than outside super PACs, and early reservations generally provide more flexibility and better inventory. Democrats have also been raising substantial sums directly through candidates: the Post found Democratic candidates held a combined $141 million advantage over Republican opponents in the reporting period it analyzed, including fundraising leads in 20 of 26 targeted House districts.
The political environment makes the spending decision more difficult. A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed Monday put Trump's job approval at 33%, the lowest level of his political career and unchanged from the previous two Reuters/Ipsos surveys. Only 36% of respondents supported the ongoing Iran war, while 71% disapproved of Trump's handling of cost-of-living issues. Democrats also showed a sizable enthusiasm advantage: 46% of Democrats said they were very enthusiastic about voting in November compared with 31% of Republicans.
Trump therefore presents Republican candidates with a political paradox. His organization possesses extraordinary financial resources and his personal support can be crucial for mobilizing Republican voters, particularly those who participate inconsistently when he is absent from the ballot. But his low national approval means campaigns must decide how prominently to feature the president in races where independents and swing voters could determine the result. MAGA Inc.'s expected advertisements emphasizing Trump's accomplishments will test whether his ability to activate the Republican base outweighs the danger of tying vulnerable candidates more closely to an unpopular president.
Trump insists the money will eventually move. Asked recently whether he would help Republican candidates, he said he would, while James Blair, the former White House deputy chief of staff now running Trump's midterm political operation, has said the president intends to commit substantial resources. Trump said last month that organizations affiliated with him had accumulated roughly $850 million and that he intended to spend heavily supporting Republican candidates he considers strong, although that broader figure includes money beyond MAGA Inc.'s publicly disclosed cash balance.
The unanswered question is no longer whether Trump has enough money to influence the midterms. It is whether he deploys it early enough, and broadly enough, to change races before the most efficient opportunities to spend it disappear. A $403 million super PAC reserve gives Trump extraordinary leverage over Republican politics, but every week the money remains largely in the bank reduces some of the campaign options available to the candidates waiting for it.