By Saqib S. Qureshi
WASHINGTON — U.S. President Donald Trump has frequently blamed his predecessor, political opponents and government institutions when policies run into trouble, but growing voter concerns over living costs and the war with Iran are testing that strategy as Republicans head toward November’s midterm elections.
Trump returned to the White House after campaigning heavily on inflation, repeatedly blaming former President Joe Biden for high grocery, housing and energy costs and promising Americans that prices would come down under his administration.
Nearly two years later, affordability remains a political vulnerability.
U.S. grocery prices have risen about 3.4% during the first 19 months of Trump's second term, according to government data cited by Reuters, while some everyday products including beef, coffee and apples have registered substantially larger increases.
The issue has particular resonance because Trump used grocery prices as a central campaign weapon in 2024, including an appearance at a New Jersey supermarket where he displayed everyday food products while attacking Biden's economic record.
Now Republicans are confronting similar questions from voters.
In New Jersey's competitive 7th Congressional District, voters interviewed by Reuters expressed continued concern about living costs ahead of the November elections, highlighting the potential danger for Republican candidates in closely contested House races.
Iran war adds pressure at the pump
Trump's foreign policy has added another complication.
The continuing U.S. conflict with Iran and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed energy prices higher, connecting a major international crisis directly with Americans' household expenses.
Average U.S. gasoline prices reached about $4.08 a gallon this week, roughly 29% higher than a year earlier, Reuters reported.
Trump on Friday urged Americans to accept higher gasoline prices while defending his administration's Iran strategy, arguing that the broader objectives of the conflict justified the economic cost.
The comments could complicate Republican efforts to campaign on affordability.
Trump spent much of the 2024 election blaming Biden for gasoline prices and broader inflation, making the cost of fuel one of the most visible measures he used to judge the previous administration.
The White House says Trump's policies are strengthening the U.S. economy and that the administration inherited high prices and other economic problems from Biden.
Trump has also said inflation has been brought under control and points to investment, economic growth and trade policies as evidence that his programme is working.
But opinion polls show many Americans remain dissatisfied with the cost of living.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll in June found 70% of Americans disapproved of Trump's handling of living costs, while Democrats held a narrow advantage when respondents were asked which party they preferred to control Congress.
Pattern extends beyond economy
Trump's response reflects a broader political pattern that has followed him through both presidencies.
An Associated Press analysis published Saturday examined Trump's tendency to claim personal credit for successes while directing responsibility elsewhere when events turn against him.
Trump has blamed Biden for economic difficulties and international crises, criticised the Federal Reserve when interest-rate policy has conflicted with his economic objectives, attacked judges after legal setbacks and distanced himself from Republican candidates or officials following political defeats.
Trump and his allies argue that such criticism is justified because presidents inherit economic, security and institutional problems from previous administrations and cannot control every development affecting the country.
Presidents of both parties have routinely blamed predecessors for difficult conditions.
Barack Obama frequently referred to the financial crisis he inherited from George W. Bush, while Biden attributed parts of the inflation surge during his presidency to the COVID-19 pandemic, disrupted global supply chains and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Trump's approach, however, has been notable for the frequency with which he personally associates himself with positive developments while rejecting responsibility for negative ones.
The distinction is becoming harder to maintain as his second administration approaches the two-year mark.
Midterms bring accountability question
The November midterms will provide the clearest electoral test.
Republicans are fighting to retain control of Congress, and Democrats are seeking to turn voter dissatisfaction over prices into a referendum on Trump's second-term economic record.
That presents Republican candidates with a difficult argument.
Trump successfully asked voters in 2024 to hold the sitting Democratic president responsible for high prices. Democrats can now use essentially the same argument against Republicans.
The Iran conflict increases that vulnerability because higher fuel prices are occurring while Trump is commander-in-chief and his administration is directing U.S. policy toward Tehran.
Trump has nevertheless remained confident about Republican prospects and has said the party can retain its congressional majorities.
His political standing also remains highly polarised, with strong support among Republican voters continuing to provide him considerable influence over GOP candidates and campaign strategy.
But independent and swing voters could prove decisive in competitive districts.
The question heading toward November is therefore becoming less about whether Trump can successfully assign responsibility elsewhere and more about whether voters believe him.
For a president who returned to office largely by asking Americans to judge Biden by the prices they paid at supermarkets and gasoline stations, the same political measurement is increasingly being applied to his own administration.