Iran declares US influence fading from Baghdad as Gaza strikes test a Middle East still far from peace
By Zayan Irfan I SCN NEWS
BAGHDAD/GAZA — Iran's parliament speaker has used one of the most symbolically charged locations in Iraq to declare that the United States is searching for a way out of the Middle East, even as renewed Israeli strikes in Gaza and continuing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz demonstrate how far the region remains from the post-war order Tehran says is emerging.
Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Iran's parliament speaker and a prominent figure in Tehran's political establishment, made the argument Wednesday during a three-day visit to Iraq.
His choice of location carried much of the message.
Qalibaf visited the site near Baghdad International Airport where a U.S. drone strike killed Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in January 2020, turning the scene of one of the most consequential American attacks on Iran's regional network into a platform for declaring that Washington's influence is now declining.
Iranian reporting quoted Qalibaf as saying the United States is looking for an “honourable” or “dignified” exit from the region and arguing that foreign powers are losing their ability to determine the Middle East's political order.
That is Tehran's political interpretation, not an independently established description of American strategy.
Indeed, the United States retains military forces, bases and security partnerships across the Gulf and wider Middle East.
But Qalibaf's statement is significant because it reveals how Iran is attempting to frame the aftermath of months of direct conflict with Washington: not simply as survival, but as evidence that the regional balance of power is shifting away from the United States.
The setting in Baghdad makes that argument especially important.
Iraq has spent years trying to balance relations with both Washington and Tehran.
Iran maintains extensive political, economic and security influence there, while the United States retains important diplomatic and strategic interests.
Qalibaf's visit therefore places Iran's broader claim about American decline inside one of the countries where that competition has been most visible.
Yet Iraq also exposes a contradiction in Tehran's narrative.
The disruption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has created problems for Iraqi oil exports, and Baghdad is now seeking special arrangements allowing its crude to move through the strategic waterway. AP reports the issue is part of the discussions surrounding Qalibaf's visit.
That means Iran's leverage over Hormuz can pressure not only Washington and its Gulf allies but also neighboring governments Tehran wants inside a more Iran-friendly regional order.
Gaza shows why a post-war order remains distant
At the same time, Israel continued military operations in Gaza.
Associated Press reports Israeli strikes killed at least 10 people Wednesday, according to Gaza hospital officials, while Israeli forces also crossed the ceasefire line and detained a Hamas official.
The developments add to mounting questions surrounding the durability of the U.S.-backed Gaza framework.
Earlier this month, Reuters reported that Israeli strikes killed at least 18 Palestinians in one day despite Trump's announcement of progress toward implementing the ceasefire agreement.
The territorial situation is also far from a conventional Israeli withdrawal.
Reuters reported earlier this month that Israel said its forces would remain until Hamas was disarmed and its tunnels destroyed, while Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said Israeli-held territory had expanded to roughly 60% to 70% of Gaza.
That provides a very different picture from a region moving smoothly from war toward political settlement.
Iran and Gaza remain strategically connected
The Iran conflict and Gaza war are separate theatres, but the diplomacy surrounding them has become increasingly interconnected.
Trump has argued that weakening Iran helped create conditions for progress toward disarming Hamas and restructuring Gaza. At the same time, Washington has acknowledged that the Iran conflict itself may continue even while it pursues diplomatic arrangements elsewhere.
Iran presents almost the opposite interpretation.
Tehran argues that resistance to American and Israeli military power has weakened Washington's regional position and accelerated movement toward an order shaped more heavily by regional states themselves.
Neither interpretation has yet been decisively proved.
What can be established is that the Middle East's major conflicts are increasingly interacting with each other.
Hormuz affects global energy flows and Iraq.
The U.S.-Iran confrontation affects Washington's military posture across the Gulf.
Israel's Gaza operations affect Arab governments trying to stabilise relations with both Washington and Tehran.
And Iraq remains caught directly between American and Iranian influence.
Soleimani's killing site gives Qalibaf's message another meaning
That is why Qalibaf's Baghdad appearance matters beyond rhetoric.
Soleimani was the architect of much of Iran's regional network, cultivating relationships with armed groups and political movements from Iraq and Lebanon to Syria and Yemen.
His killing was intended to demonstrate Washington's ability to strike at the heart of that system.
Six years later, Iran's parliament speaker returned to the location and used it to argue that America—not Iran—is now looking for an exit.
Symbolically, it is one of the clearest ways Tehran could attempt to reverse the meaning of the 2020 strike.
Strategically, however, the situation is far less clear.
The U.S. remains deeply involved in the region.
Iran has suffered major military and leadership losses during its confrontation with the United States and Israel.
Gaza remains under extensive Israeli military control.
And negotiations over Hormuz remain unresolved.
The result is a gap between Iran's narrative of a new regional order and conditions on the ground.
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The most revealing detail is where Qalibaf delivered the message.
Iran did not simply announce from Tehran that America is looking for an exit.
Its parliament speaker travelled to Baghdad and visited the precise area where the United States killed Qassem Soleimani, then framed today's conflict as evidence of declining American regional power. AP photographs and reporting independently confirm Qalibaf's presence at the site Wednesday.
That makes the visit a carefully constructed political message.
But the wider regional picture complicates it.
Iraq needs relief from Hormuz disruption; Gaza is again experiencing deadly Israeli strikes; Washington still maintains extensive regional military relationships; and U.S.-Iran negotiations remain stalled. Trump said Tuesday that no talks with Iran were currently planned.
So the stronger SCN story is not simply “Iran says America wants to leave.”
It is the collision between Iran's attempt to declare a post-American Middle East and the reality of a region where American power, Iranian leverage, Israeli military operations and unresolved wars remain deeply intertwined.