By Beenish Rashid :
Iran Kept Its Missiles. Did Tehran Win the War — Or Did Washington Get What It Wanted?
When Pakistan confirmed that Iran's ballistic missile programme is not included in the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, many observers immediately asked a simple question: if missiles are off the table, has Iran already won?
The answer is more complicated.
At first glance, Iran appears to have secured one of its most important objectives. For years, Tehran has treated its ballistic missile programme as non-negotiable. Iranian leaders argue that missiles are the country's main deterrent against Israel and the United States. Unlike its nuclear programme, which has been subject to international negotiations for decades, Iran has consistently refused to place missile capabilities under foreign restrictions.
If the current MoU leaves missiles untouched, Tehran can claim it protected a core national security asset despite months of military pressure and economic sanctions.
Why This Looks Like an Iranian Victory
Iran enters the next phase of negotiations with three major achievements:
For Iranian state media, these points alone may be enough to present the outcome as a strategic victory.
Why The US Can Still Claim Success
Washington sees the situation very differently.
The Trump administration's primary objective was never necessarily to eliminate every Iranian missile. Its bigger concern has always been preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and reducing the risk of a wider regional war.
If the agreement ultimately delivers:
- Strong nuclear inspections
- Limits on uranium enrichment
- Continued monitoring
- Reopening of regional shipping routes
- Reduced military tensions
then Washington can argue it achieved its core goals without another costly Middle East war.
In that scenario, the White House would claim diplomacy achieved what military pressure alone could not.
The Real Battle Starts Now
The missile issue may actually become the biggest problem in future negotiations.
Israel has repeatedly argued that any lasting agreement must address not only Iran's nuclear programme but also its growing missile arsenal.
Many Gulf states share similar concerns.
That means the current MoU may simply postpone the hardest discussion rather than solve it.
If Washington later pushes to include missiles and Tehran refuses, negotiations could quickly become deadlocked.
Who Is Winning Right Now?
Military Winner: No clear winner.
Political Winner: Slight advantage to Iran because missiles remain outside the framework.
Diplomatic Winner: Too early to tell.
Strategic Winner: Unknown until final negotiations conclude.
The SCN Angle
The biggest mistake may be viewing this as a simple US-versus-Iran victory.
History suggests most Middle East agreements are judged not by what is signed first, but by what survives later.
The current MoU stopped a dangerous escalation. It did not resolve the fundamental dispute.
Iran preserved its missiles.
The United States preserved negotiations.
The next 60 days will determine which of those achievements proves more valuable.
Conclusion
Iran has not defeated the United States.
The United States has not forced Iran to surrender.
Instead, both sides left the battlefield with enough gains to declare success at home.
The real winner will only emerge if a final agreement is reached — or if talks collapse and the missile issue returns to the center of the conflict.