Germans start voting, polls suggest shift to right
Merz's CDU/CSU bloc has consistently led polls but is unlikely to win a majority given Germany's fragmented political landscape, forcing it to sound out coalition partners.
The SPD is headed for its worst result since World War Two.
The election campaign has been dominated by fierce exchanges over the perception that irregular immigration is out of control, fueled by a series of attacks in which the suspected perpetrators were of migrant origin.
It has also been overshadowed by the unusually forceful show of solidarity by members of the Trump administration - including Vice President JD Vance and tech billionaire Elon Musk - for the anti-migrant AfD, and broadsides against European leaders.
The 12-year-old AfD is on track to come in second place for the first time in a national election.
"I'm completely disappointed in politics, so maybe an alternative would be better," said retired Berlin bookkeeper Ludmila Ballhorn, 76, who plans to vote AfD, adding she was struggling to live on her pension of 800 euros. "Rents and all other costs have soared."
The AfD, however, is unlikely to govern for now as all mainstream parties have ruled out working with it, though some analysts believe it could pave the way for an AfD win in 2029.
Still, its strength, along with a small but significant vote share for the far-left and the decline of Germany's big-tent parties, is increasingly complicating the formation of coalitions and governance.
Coalition options
EU allies are cautiously hopeful the elections might deliver a more coherent government able to help drive forward policy at home and in the bloc.
Some also hope Merz will reform the "debt brake," a constitutional mechanism to limit government borrowing that critics say has strangled new investment.
The most likely outcome of this election, say analysts, is a tie-up of Merz's conservative bloc of Christian Democrats (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) with the SPD, which is polling in third place in another uneasy "grand coalition".
Polls, however, suggest another three-way coalition may be necessary if several small parties make the 5% threshold to enter parliament, complicating talks.
"A lot of my friends are likely going to vote for the conservatives because this government didn't work so well and Merz's international standing is quite good," said Mike Zeller, 26, a civil servant.
"I just hope enough parties agree to a government so they can leave the AfD out."