By Shahnoor Saqib — SCN NEWS
JERUSALEM — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emerged from Tuesday's parliamentary election in a stronger position than opinion polls had suggested, with his right-wing alliance securing a substantial lead over its principal opposition bloc in partial results released on Wednesday, but remaining short of the majority needed to form a government. The outcome has left Israel facing potentially prolonged coalition negotiations while strengthening Netanyahu's prospects of remaining in office as caretaker prime minister.
With nearly 86% of votes counted, Israel's three main television broadcasters projected that Netanyahu's alliance of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties would secure 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, compared with 48 for the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. Parties representing Israel's Arab population were projected to win 19 seats, reflecting unusually high participation among Palestinian citizens of Israel. The figures remained provisional, and the final distribution of seats could change as election officials completed the count.
The results presented a political paradox for Netanyahu. Although his alliance appeared to have lost its previous parliamentary majority, it had performed considerably better than expected and left his opponents facing substantial obstacles to replacing him. Neither principal bloc had reached the 61 seats required to govern, but Eisenkot's potential route to power depended on support from Arab parties that several opposition politicians have previously ruled out as coalition partners.
Netanyahu's performance also suggested that his political appeal among Jewish Israeli voters remained resilient despite the October 7, 2023, security failures, the prolonged war in Gaza and military confrontations involving Lebanon and Iran. The distribution of projected seats among Jewish-led parties pointed to a strong preference for the political right, although parliamentary seat projections do not provide a precise measurement of individual voter preferences. The election therefore demonstrated both Netanyahu's continued influence and the divisions that prevent either political camp from claiming an uncontested national mandate.
Addressing supporters at Likud headquarters in Jerusalem shortly after 3 a.m., Netanyahu called for the formation of a strong right-wing government and presented the election as an opportunity to maintain Israel's military and political direction. He highlighted the country's operations against regional adversaries and raised the possibility of further joint action against Iran alongside U.S. President Donald Trump. His remarks indicated that national security and confrontation with Iran would remain central to his political agenda as negotiations over the next government began.
Trump, who had publicly supported Netanyahu during the campaign, welcomed the prime minister's stronger-than-expected performance and suggested that his endorsement had helped. The American president's intervention reflected the close political relationship between the two leaders and the importance Washington attaches to Israel's role in regional security. However, American support does not resolve the parliamentary arithmetic confronting Netanyahu, whose ability to form a government will depend on agreements among Israeli political parties.
Eisenkot disputed Netanyahu's interpretation of the election, arguing that the prime minister had lost the confidence required to continue governing with a stable majority. The opposition leader acknowledged that Netanyahu would remain in office during the caretaker period but urged him to leave politics. He also appealed to Israel's military, intelligence and civil-service leadership to maintain institutional independence, warning against the possibility that national security decisions could become entangled with Netanyahu's political efforts to retain power.
The competing statements illustrated the uncertainty created by an election in which neither side could demonstrate a viable governing majority. Netanyahu's bloc held a clear advantage over Eisenkot's alliance in the provisional seat projections, yet the combined representation of opposition and Arab parties prevented the prime minister from claiming outright parliamentary control. Eisenkot, meanwhile, faced the difficult task of assembling support from parties divided over Palestinian representation, national identity and the future direction of Israeli security policy.
Arab voter participation emerged as one of the most consequential developments of the election. Turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel increased sharply, contributing to projections that Arab-led parties could secure an unprecedented 19 parliamentary seats. Their stronger representation could make them influential in determining whether an alternative government is possible, even though their participation in governing coalitions remains politically contentious among several Jewish-led parties.
The election was held against the background of Israel's continuing conflict with Palestinians and the consequences of the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, in which approximately 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage. Israel's subsequent military campaign devastated large areas of Gaza and killed approximately 74,000 Palestinians, according to figures reported by Palestinian health authorities. The conflict has intensified international criticism of Israeli military policy while reshaping domestic arguments over security, accountability and the country's political future.
Netanyahu's continued electoral strength among Jewish Israelis reflects a broader shift towards nationalist and security-focused politics that has developed over several decades. His opposition to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, support for Israeli settlements in occupied territory and confrontational approach towards regional adversaries have become influential positions across much of Israel's Jewish political spectrum. Eisenkot and other opposition figures have challenged Netanyahu's leadership and conduct of the war without necessarily offering fundamentally different positions on several central security questions.
The political divisions extend beyond the Palestinian issue. Netanyahu remains the subject of corruption proceedings in Israel, allegations he denies, and faces an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court over alleged war crimes, accusations he rejects. His government has also faced domestic criticism over attempts to change the judicial system, the military-service exemptions enjoyed by many ultra-Orthodox men and the influence of far-right ministers. Those disputes have contributed to years of political instability and repeated elections.
Financial markets responded negatively to the emerging results as investors considered the possibility of another prolonged period without a stable parliamentary majority. The Israeli shekel weakened by around 2% against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, while Tel Aviv's main benchmark stock index fell approximately 3%. Analysts attributed the reaction partly to uncertainty over coalition formation and the prospect that Netanyahu could remain in power without securing a durable governing arrangement.
The market response contrasted with expectations before the election, when some investors had anticipated that a change of government might ease tensions with Western allies and reduce domestic political uncertainty. Netanyahu's stronger performance complicated those expectations, leaving investors to assess the likelihood of a caretaker administration, a fragile coalition or another election. The political deadlock could also affect decisions concerning government spending, economic policy and relations with international partners.
Israel's proportional representation system makes coalition negotiations essential because no single political party has ever secured an outright majority in the Knesset. Once the final election results are published, President Isaac Herzog will consult parliamentary parties and select the candidate he considers most likely to assemble a government. The chosen candidate can receive up to 42 days to complete negotiations, with further procedures available if the initial attempt fails.
The Central Elections Committee was continuing to count ballots on Wednesday, including votes cast by soldiers and Israelis serving abroad. Definitive results were expected on Thursday, with the formal publication of the election outcome scheduled for November 4. Until the process is completed, projected seat totals remain subject to change, particularly in a fragmented parliament where relatively small differences in vote shares can affect the allocation of seats.
National turnout reached approximately 77.7%, its highest level in more than two decades, reflecting the importance Israelis attached to their first parliamentary election since the October 2023 attacks. Participation increased among both supporters and opponents of Netanyahu, demonstrating the intensity of public engagement after years of war and political turmoil. The unusually strong turnout nevertheless failed to produce a straightforward result, leaving the next government's composition dependent on negotiations rather than a decisive electoral majority.
For Netanyahu, the immediate result represents a political reprieve rather than an outright victory. His alliance's stronger-than-expected showing has weakened the opposition's prospects of removing him, but the absence of a parliamentary majority limits his ability to claim a mandate for another stable right-wing administration. Eisenkot faces an equally difficult challenge in attempting to unite parties whose opposition to Netanyahu does not necessarily translate into agreement over how Israel should be governed.
The election's consequences extend beyond domestic politics. A prolonged caretaker government could complicate decisions concerning military operations, relations with Iran, negotiations involving Gaza and Israel's diplomatic relationships with Western governments. Netanyahu's renewed emphasis on confronting Iran has