Inside Israel's 2026 Election as Coalition Politics and Voting Rights Shape the Battle for Power
Analysis by Naeema Saleem — SCN NEWS
JERUSALEM, October 23, 2026 — Israelis will vote on October 27 in their sixth parliamentary election since 2019, choosing a new 120-member Knesset after four years marked by war, political division and mounting disputes over the country's security and democratic institutions. Yet the central question is not simply which party receives the most votes. Israel's electoral system makes the formation of a governing coalition decisive, while millions of Palestinians living in territories under Israeli control remain outside the national electorate.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking another term against an opposition that includes former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, former prime minister Naftali Bennett and other political leaders. The election is the first since the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, attack and the subsequent wars involving Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. It is also being fought amid disagreements over military conscription, judicial authority, the cost of living and accountability for Israel's security failures.
Understanding the vote requires examining three separate questions: how ballots become parliamentary seats, how parties combine those seats to form a government, and who is permitted to participate in choosing the lawmakers who exercise authority over Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories.
One country, one national constituency
Unlike countries that elect legislators from individual geographical districts, Israel uses a single nationwide constituency. Eligible voters cast ballots for political party lists rather than individual parliamentary candidates. The parties receive seats in proportion to their share of qualifying votes, subject to an electoral threshold of 3.25%.
That threshold is a defining feature of the system. Parties that fail to reach it receive no Knesset seats, and their votes are excluded from the allocation among qualifying lists. A party can therefore attract substantial public support but still be left without representation if its share falls just below the minimum.
The remaining seats are allocated through a proportional formula that also accounts for surplus-vote agreements between eligible party lists. This can make a relatively small difference in vote totals important to the final distribution of seats, particularly when rival political blocs are separated by only a handful of lawmakers.
Israel's parliament has 120 seats, meaning a government needs the support of at least 61 members to command a majority. No single party has ever won that majority on its own. Coalition bargaining is therefore a normal and essential part of Israeli government formation, rather than an exceptional response to an inconclusive election.
The president consults parliamentary factions after the vote and assigns a lawmaker the task of assembling a government. The candidate must negotiate support from enough parties to obtain parliamentary approval. Consequently, the leader of the largest party does not automatically become prime minister.
Why small parties can determine the government
The relationship between votes and power is not always straightforward. A relatively small party may hold only a few seats but still become indispensable if a larger bloc cannot reach 61 without it. Such parties can use coalition negotiations to seek ministerial positions or commitments on issues important to their supporters.
Israel's recent history illustrates the instability that can result when coalitions depend on narrow majorities. The country held five parliamentary elections between 2019 and 2022, a period marked by repeated attempts to form durable governments. The October 27 vote will be the sixth election since that cycle began.
Netanyahu's political strength has traditionally rested on Likud's partnership with religious and nationalist parties, including ultra-Orthodox factions and parties representing the settlement movement. His challengers include centrist, secular right-wing and left-leaning groups that disagree with one another on important policy questions even while opposing his continued leadership.
The current opposition includes Eisenkot's Yashar party, the Together alliance associated with Bennett and Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and the Democrats led by Yair Golan. Palestinian citizens of Israel are represented through parties including Ra'am and the Joint List alliance.
Their presence complicates coalition negotiations. Several leading Jewish Israeli opposition figures have ruled out governing with Palestinian-led parties, even though those parties may hold enough seats to influence the parliamentary arithmetic. In 2021, however, Ra'am entered a coalition led by Bennett, demonstrating that such arrangements are politically possible.
The electoral threshold adds another uncertainty. If a party expected to win several seats falls below 3.25%, those seats do not simply disappear. The votes are removed from the seat-allocation calculation, changing the distribution among parties that qualify. This can alter the balance between rival blocs without a dramatic change in their overall support.
Who can vote — and who cannot
Approximately 7.3 million Israeli citizens are eligible to vote in the October 27 election. Citizens aged 18 and older can participate, including Jewish Israelis and Palestinian citizens of Israel. The electorate also includes Israeli settlers living in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem.
The distinction between citizenship and residency is especially important in Jerusalem. Most Palestinians living in occupied East Jerusalem hold Israeli permanent-resident status rather than citizenship. They may vote in municipal elections, but they cannot vote for the Knesset unless they have acquired Israeli citizenship.
Palestinians living in the occupied West Bank and Gaza generally cannot participate in Israeli parliamentary elections because they are not Israeli citizens. This remains the case even though Israeli military decisions, border controls and other policies have significant consequences for their daily lives.
The resulting difference is visible within the occupied West Bank. An Israeli citizen living in a settlement can vote for the Knesset, while a Palestinian living nearby ordinarily cannot. Their legal circumstances differ, but decisions made by the Israeli government affect both populations.
That distinction is central to the debate over democratic representation and the occupation. Israel maintains that the Palestinian territories are subject to distinct legal and political arrangements, while Palestinian representatives and international human rights organizations argue that the exclusion of residents from elections for a government exercising substantial control over their lives raises fundamental questions about political rights.
Palestinian citizens of Israel, meanwhile, possess the right to vote and stand for the Knesset, but political participation does not guarantee influence over government formation. The reluctance of major Jewish-led parties to enter coalitions with Palestinian-led factions can limit the practical bargaining power of those representatives.
Turnout is another significant factor. Palestinian political leaders have urged eligible Arab voters to participate, while some members of the community remain disillusioned with Israeli institutions and the limited influence they believe their representatives can exercise. These are competing views within a diverse electorate, not a single political position shared by all Palestinian citizens.
The political geography behind a national vote
Because Israel has no parliamentary constituencies, electoral maps show patterns of political support rather than separate seats assigned to towns or regions. A party's votes in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Haifa or a smaller community all contribute to the same national total.
Geography still matters politically. Different communities have distinct economic interests, religious identities and views about security and the state's relationship with the occupied territories. Ultra-Orthodox communities, Arab-majority localities, secular urban populations and settlements can show contrasting voting patterns, although no community votes as a single bloc.
This is why a map of Israel's electoral geography should not be confused with a map of parliamentary districts. The entire country elects one Knesset. Local voting patterns help explain party support, but seats are awarded nationally.
Maps of the occupied territories also require care. Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem have different administrative and legal arrangements, and boundaries involving occupied territory remain internationally disputed. Showing Israeli settlements alongside Palestinian communities can help explain the voting-rights divide, provided the map does not suggest that the territories have identical legal status.
The issues shaping October 27
Security remains a central election issue following the October 7 attacks and the subsequent regional wars. Netanyahu has defended his government's military approach, while opponents have questioned his handling of the initial security failures and the long-term strategy for Gaza. Many of his principal challengers nevertheless share restrictive positions on Palestinian statehood and regard Iran as a major security threat.
Domestic disputes may produce sharper differences. Opposition parties have called for a state commission of inquiry into the October 2023 attacks, while the government's approach to accountability has drawn sustained criticism. Proposals affecting the judiciary have also remained contentious, with supporters arguing for changes to the balance of institutional power and opponents warning that the changes could weaken judicial independence.
Military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jewish men are another major fault line. The issue has gained urgency after prolonged military operations increased demands on personnel. Parties representing ultra-Orthodox communities have defended protections for religious study, while critics argue that the burden of service is distributed unequally.
The cost of living and the financial consequences of sustained military spending also feature in the campaign. Household expenses, public services and the allocation of government resources matter to voters beyond the immediate questions of war and national security.
On the occupied West Bank, Netanyahu's coalition includes politicians advocating settlement expansion and greater Israeli control. Several opposition leaders have condemned settler violence more explicitly, although significant differences remain over the prospects for Palestinian statehood and the future of the territory.
These policy positions mean that a change of government would not necessarily produce an equally significant change in every area of foreign or security policy. The composition of any coalition, the commitments negotiated among its parties and developments in the region would all shape the next government's decisions.
What the charts reveal — and what they cannot
The most important figure in the election is 61, the minimum number of Knesset seats needed for a majority. The second is 3.25%, the threshold that determines whether a party receives any parliamentary representation. Together, these figures explain why small parties and narrow shifts in support can have consequences far beyond their size.
A third number, approximately 7.3 million eligible voters, defines the electorate but not the full population affected by Israeli government decisions. Understanding the distinction between Israeli citizens who can vote and Palestinians in the occupied territories who generally cannot is essential to interpreting the political reach of the election.
Pre-election polling can indicate changes in party support, but it cannot establish the final parliamentary composition. Seat projections depend on turnout, the distribution of votes and which lists clear the threshold. Coalition agreements are negotiated after ballots are counted, so even a confirmed seat total does not by itself identify the next government.
Israel's October 27 election will determine the composition of its next parliament and begin another round of negotiations over executive power. It will also bring into focus a wider question that cannot be settled through coalition arithmetic alone: how political representation functions when the decisions of an elected government extend to millions of people who cannot vote in that election.
The outcome remains unknown. What is already clear is that the structure of the electoral system, the bargaining power of smaller parties and the boundaries of citizenship will be as important to understanding the vote as the contest between Netanyahu and his rivals.