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Canada Pushes for India Trade Deal by Year-End as Carney Seeks to Reduce U.S. Dependence

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Canada–India Trade Deal Targeted for 2026 as Ottawa Shifts Focus 

By Robeka Irfan — SCN NEWS

NEW DELHI — Canada is seeking to conclude a comprehensive trade agreement with India before the end of the year, Foreign Minister Anita Anand said Wednesday, accelerating an effort to diversify the country's international commerce as Prime Minister Mark Carney looks to reduce its economic dependence on the United States.

Speaking during a visit to New Delhi, Anand confirmed that negotiations toward a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, known as CEPA, were progressing as the two governments worked to expand trade and investment following years of diplomatic tensions. The proposed agreement forms part of a broader Canadian strategy to strengthen commercial relationships across Asia and Europe while maintaining important economic and security ties with Washington.

Canada wants to double its trade with countries other than the United States over the next decade, a goal that has gained urgency amid President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies. Ottawa is also seeking to deepen cooperation with the European Union and other international partners in sectors including energy, critical minerals and advanced technology. Anand described economic diversification as important to Canada's long-term resilience and sovereignty.

The proposed India agreement has become a central component of that strategy. Canadian officials have set a target of increasing annual bilateral goods and services trade to C$70 billion by 2030, compared with C$30.4 billion recorded in 2025. The target represents an ambition for future commercial growth rather than a guaranteed outcome of the negotiations, and neither government has announced a completed agreement or a timetable for its entry into force.

Negotiations have intensified in recent weeks, with the fifth round of talks taking place in Ottawa earlier this month. Canadian International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu also met Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal in New Delhi as part of a major Canadian trade mission. The two ministers reviewed progress in the negotiations and discussed opportunities to strengthen investment and commercial partnerships between businesses in both countries.

The mission, scheduled for October 12 to 17, includes nearly 300 Canadian delegates and visits to Mumbai and Bengaluru. Participating businesses represent sectors including aerospace, information technology, clean energy, life sciences and agriculture. Ottawa has described the delegation as its largest commercial mission to India in more than three decades, underscoring the importance it places on expanding access to the Indian market.

Anand also met Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar on Wednesday to review progress in bilateral relations. According to Canada's foreign ministry, the discussions covered trade, energy, security, defence and people-to-people ties, along with international developments affecting both countries. The ministers welcomed efforts to advance the economic partnership negotiations and discussed the recent expansion of bilateral security dialogue.

The diplomatic engagement followed a telephone conversation between Carney and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday. Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to reaching a comprehensive economic agreement and discussed cooperation in technology, energy and security. Modi is expected to visit Canada in December, providing another opportunity for high-level discussions, although officials have not confirmed that the trade agreement will be ready for signature during that visit.

The effort to strengthen economic ties comes after a serious deterioration in relations following the 2023 killing of Canadian Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia. Canada's previous government alleged possible involvement by Indian government agents, an accusation New Delhi rejected. The dispute led to diplomatic expulsions and strained relations, complicating cooperation between two countries with extensive business, educational and family connections.

Carney's government has since pursued a gradual rebuilding of relations, combining renewed diplomatic engagement with discussions on national security and law enforcement. Anand said the restoration of ties remained a process in which sovereignty and the rule of law were important considerations. The renewed trade negotiations do not resolve the earlier dispute, but they demonstrate the willingness of both governments to pursue economic cooperation while maintaining dialogue on sensitive security issues.

Canada's economic relationship with India extends beyond merchandise exports and imports. Canadian government figures show that bilateral goods and services trade reached C$30.4 billion in 2025, while merchandise trade alone amounted to C$13.6 billion. Canadian exports include agricultural products, mineral fuels and wood pulp, while imports from India include machinery, pharmaceuticals and precious stones and metals.

Services are also an important part of the relationship, particularly education-related travel and other cross-border commercial activity. Canadian officials see opportunities for expanded cooperation in energy, aerospace, artificial intelligence, agriculture and critical minerals. A comprehensive agreement could provide more predictable trade rules and reduce barriers affecting businesses, although its eventual benefits would depend on the commitments negotiated and implemented by both governments.

Recent commercial developments illustrate the wider economic engagement. Canadian uranium producer Cameco signed a multibillion-dollar Canadian-dollar supply arrangement with India earlier this year, while Canada's Fairfax Financial Holdings has agreed to acquire a majority stake in India's IDBI Bank in a transaction valued at approximately US$5.56 billion. The banking acquisition remains subject to regulatory approval and is separate from the government-to-government trade negotiations.

Ottawa is simultaneously pursuing additional economic partnerships outside India. Anand said Canada was seeking deeper cooperation with the European Union in critical minerals, energy and artificial intelligence, building on the existing Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement. Canada has also expanded commercial engagement in Southeast Asia, including a trade agreement with Indonesia and efforts to advance a broader agreement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

The diversification strategy does not amount to an end to Canada's economic relationship with the United States, which remains its largest trading partner. Instead, the government is seeking to broaden access to other markets and reduce the risks associated with heavy dependence on a single economy. Progress toward an India agreement would provide an important test of that approach as Ottawa balances new international partnerships with its continuing relationship with Washington.

The next stage of negotiations will determine whether the two countries can settle outstanding trade issues before the December deadline. While officials have expressed confidence in the direction of the talks, a final agreement has yet to be announced, and any completed text would still need to pass through the relevant domestic approval and implementation procedures.

For Canada and India, the immediate objective is to turn renewed diplomatic engagement into a negotiated commercial framework. Whether the governments meet their year-end target will depend on the remaining negotiations, but their latest meetings indicate that economic cooperation has become a prominent part of the effort to rebuild bilateral relations.

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